Maybe not. Interesting analysis here:
Mobile spam will be different for exactly those reasons. 1. It’s not dirt cheap. It’s cheap (relative to how intrusive it is), but there’s still an economic cost. No penis enlargement SMS in the foreseeable future. 2. It’s easy to trace. There’s no way people will be able to spam without the knowledge of a mobile operator. People do complain and they complain to their MNO. If this stuff is really unrequested, we will see aggregators and spammer shutting down in droves. Furthermore, I see ICSTIS or the MMA (in the UK) and MNOs themselves starting to make mobile marketers jump through considerable hoops to send even permissions-based marketing. The reason for that is simple: churn. Look at Finland or Denmark, where MVNOs and MNOs are engaged in cut-throat competition. The era of single-digit revenue growth is looming. The financial focus at operators is on capital-return, proof being the recent share buybacks / dividends of Voda / DoCoMo. MNOs cannot afford to be the network people run away from. 3. Legislation. Spam legislation will be applied to mobile as well. Let’s see the first people in government getting spam on the mobiles they use for their day-to-day affairs. They’ve been relatively insulated from internet spam in their official lives. They won’t be as lucky on their phones (there ain’t no government firewall there).
[Hat tip to Stuart]